Monday, June 8, 2009

Putting a price on the green lunch

How Much Is The 2nd Derivative Worth?

Well, according to the stock market more than $4T dollars. Market cap of the Whilshire 5000 in the march lows day $9.38T, market cap today $13.4T. Given the total US corporate profits(including non-publicly traded corporations) was $1.2T in 2008
, the market decided that when economic data stops accelerating the rate of contraction that is worth putting a additional 4x profit multiple over it. It was a about an 43% rally, did the green shoot story overshoot?It looks like so since a 2nd derivative doesnt tell you anything about WHEN a bottom is coming, it just tells you that there is one. The green shooters have a $4T gamble going on, time will tell whether they paid the right price for their optimism

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